Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 6292
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
OO 6292 · LAX → TUS
departs 4:26 PM PT · arrives 6:07 PM MT
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 45h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 16%
Thu 10/29 24%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 17%
Sun 11/1 23%
Mon 11/2 26%
Tue 11/3 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at TUS more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±2 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
25%
Arrive 1h+ late
11%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Arrive at TUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TUS?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
4pm departures from LAX are often late
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at TUS
↓
Other factors
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX
Weather at each end
LAX (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.06 in
TUS (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 9,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.21 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.