Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 6315
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30 Tomorrow
OO 6315 · LAX → TUS
departs 8:23 PM PT · arrives 10:07 PM MT
Forecast issued Thu 5:00 AM ET · 42h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 26%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 31%
Sun 11/1 25%
Mon 11/2 26%
Tue 11/3 19%
Wed 11/4 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at TUS more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±2 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
25%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
7.0d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Arrive at TUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TUS?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
8pm departures from LAX are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
0.3 in of rain forecast at TUS that day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
LAX (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 3,400 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.04 in
TUS (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 4,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.27 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.