Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 6438
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
OO 6438 · SEA → LAX
departs 4:35 PM PT · arrives 7:18 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 46h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 20%
Thu 10/29 22%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 20%
Sun 11/1 22%
Mon 11/2 25%
Tue 11/3 25%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±2 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
26%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave SEA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Arrive at LAX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAX?
On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
LAX is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into LAX at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
SEA (origin)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling 2,400 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
LAX (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.06 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.