Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 6452
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
OO 6452 · PHX → FSD
departs 6:54 PM MT · arrives 11:57 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 2:00 AM ET · 44h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 35%
Fri 10/30
Sun 11/1 22%
Mon 11/2 25%
Tue 11/3 28%
Wed 11/4 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at FSD more than 15 minutes late?
50%
chance · ±3 pts
+11 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
50%
Leave 15+ late
40%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at FSD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +11 pts in 24h
+11 pts
50%
Yes 50%
No 50%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
40%
Yes 40%
No 60%
Arrive at FSD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to FSD?
On time or early
50%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
22%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.6 in of rain forecast at PHX that day
↑
6pm departures from PHX are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 833 ft forecast at FSD that day
↓
FSD usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 4,900 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.65 in
FSD (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 767 ft Visibility 9.33333 mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.