Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 6457
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30 Tomorrow
OO 6457 · TUS → PHX
departs 8:15 PM MT · arrives 9:14 PM MT
Forecast issued Thu 4:00 AM ET · 43h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 24%
Fri 10/30
Sun 11/1 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
45%
chance · ±6 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
45%
Leave 15+ late
37%
Arrive 1h+ late
21%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
7.0d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
45%
Yes 45%
No 55%
Leave TUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
55%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
15%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.6 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at PHX that day
↑
Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late
↑
8pm departures from TUS are often late
↓
TUS usually runs smoothly
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
TUS (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 4,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.27 in
PHX (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 4,900 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.71 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.