Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 6514
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
OO 6514 · PHX → TUS
departs 6:51 PM MT · arrives 7:48 PM MT
Forecast issued Wed 5:00 PM ET · 53h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 19%
Thu 10/29 24%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 17%
Sun 11/1 23%
Mon 11/2 25%
Tue 11/3 23%
Odds over time
Arrive at TUS more than 15 minutes late?
60%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
60%
Leave 15+ late
47%
Arrive 1h+ late
20%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 21% · changed – in 24h
–
60%
Yes 60%
No 40%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed – in 24h
–
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Arrive at TUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TUS?
On time or early
40%
15–30 min late
22%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
14%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.6 in of rain forecast at PHX that day
↑
6pm departures from PHX are often late
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at TUS
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 2,900 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.59 in
TUS (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.17 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.