Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
PIEDMONT · FLIGHT PT 6012
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
PT 6012 · ILM → PHL
departs 6:53 PM ET · arrives 8:39 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 1:00 AM ET · 66h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 17%
Thu 10/29 20%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 26%
Sun 11/1 29%
Mon 11/2 20%
Tue 11/3 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed – in 24h
–
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave ILM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed – in 24h
–
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at PHL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHL?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into PHL at that hour are often late
↑
This route's recent record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ILM
Weather at each end
ILM (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 4 mi Precip none
PHL (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.