Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
QANTAS · FLIGHT QF 103
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
QF 103 · SYD → HNL
departs 8:14 PM AEDT · arrives 9:27 AM HT
Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 54h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 29%
Thu 10/29 30%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 30%
Sun 11/1 32%
Mon 11/2 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed – in 24h
–
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave SYD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed – in 24h
–
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at HNL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to HNL?
On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
HNL is prone to delays
↑
This route's recent record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SYD
↓
Arrivals into HNL at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
SYD (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
HNL (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 2,833 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.