Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AIR CANADA JAZZ · FLIGHT QK 484 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30

QK 484 · ORD → YUL

departs 3:41 PM CT · arrives 7:07 PM EDT

Forecast issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 69h before departure

Arrive at YUL more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to YUL?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 3pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ YUL usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

YUL (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling2,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

QK 484 · ORD → YUL

Odds over time

How late will it get to YUL?