Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AIR CANADA JAZZ · FLIGHT QK 550 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30

QK 550 · ORD → YTZ

departs 2:19 PM CT · arrives 5:09 PM EDT

Forecast issued Wed 12:00 AM ET · 63h before departure

Arrive at YTZ more than 15 minutes late?

13% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to YTZ?

On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 2pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↑ ORD is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Arrivals into YTZ at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

YTZ (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling4,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

QK 550 · ORD → YTZ

Odds over time

How late will it get to YTZ?