Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AIR CANADA JAZZ · FLIGHT QK 641 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30

QK 641 · LGA → YUL

departs 5:34 PM ET · arrives 7:04 PM EDT

Forecast issued Wed 12:00 AM ET · 66h before departure

Arrive at YUL more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±7 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to YUL?

On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 5pm departures from LGA are often late

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ YUL usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

YUL (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling2,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

QK 641 · LGA → YUL

Odds over time

How late will it get to YUL?