Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AIR CANADA JAZZ · FLIGHT QK 731 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30

QK 731 · YYZ → CLE

departs 1:04 PM EDT · arrives 2:25 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 1:00 AM ET · 60h before departure

Arrive at CLE more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to CLE?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This route's recent record

↑ 1pm departures from YYZ are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at YYZ

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CLE

Weather at each end

YYZ (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

CLE (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling10,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

QK 731 · YYZ → CLE

Odds over time

How late will it get to CLE?