Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AIR CANADA JAZZ · FLIGHT QK 883 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30

QK 883 · EWR → YYZ

departs 7:07 PM ET · arrives 8:54 PM EDT

Forecast issued Wed 12:00 AM ET · 67h before departure

Arrive at YYZ more than 15 minutes late?

23% chance · ±5 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to YYZ?

On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 7pm departures from EWR are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

EWR (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

YYZ (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling4,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

QK 883 · EWR → YYZ

Odds over time

How late will it get to YYZ?