Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
HORIZON · FLIGHT QX 2016
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
QX 2016 · YVR → SEA
departs 5:24 PM PDT · arrives 6:24 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 1:00 AM ET · 67h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 19%
Thu 10/29 19%
Fri 10/30
Sun 11/1 26%
Mon 11/2 25%
Tue 11/3 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed – in 24h
–
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave YVR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed – in 24h
–
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at SEA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SEA?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into SEA at that hour are often late
↑
Other factors
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at YVR
↓
QX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
YVR (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 4,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SEA (destination)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling 2,400 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.04 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.