Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
HORIZON · FLIGHT QX 2025
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
QX 2025 · SBA → PDX
departs 5:30 PM PT · arrives 8:00 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 2:00 AM ET · 66h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 12%
Thu 10/29 13%
Fri 10/30
Sun 11/1 19%
Mon 11/2 17%
Tue 11/3 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at PDX more than 15 minutes late?
12%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
12%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PDX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Leave SBA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed – in 24h
–
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at PDX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PDX?
On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into PDX at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SBA
↓
5pm departures from SBA are usually not late
Weather at each end
SBA (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 3,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
PDX (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 4,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.