Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
HORIZON · FLIGHT QX 2083
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
QX 2083 · SFO → PAE
departs 6:01 PM PT · arrives 8:16 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 3:00 AM ET · 66h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/29 17%
Fri 10/30
Sun 11/1 28%
Mon 11/2 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at PAE more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±6 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PAE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed – in 24h
–
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed – in 24h
–
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at PAE more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to PAE?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
6pm departures from SFO are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
SFO is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO
↓
PAE usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
SFO (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 10,667 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
PAE (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 2,900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.