Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
HORIZON · FLIGHT QX 2094
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
QX 2094 · SBP → SAN
departs 2:24 PM PT · arrives 3:43 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 12:00 AM ET · 65h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 15%
Thu 10/29 24%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 21%
Sun 11/1 27%
Mon 11/2 25%
Tue 11/3 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed – in 24h
–
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave SBP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed – in 24h
–
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at SAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
SAN is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late
↑
2pm departures from SBP are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SBP
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN
Weather at each end
SBP (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 3,300 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
SAN (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 3,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.