Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
HORIZON · FLIGHT QX 2136
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
QX 2136 · EUG → SAN
departs 3:11 PM PT · arrives 5:42 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 12:00 AM ET · 66h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 22%
Thu 10/29 25%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 25%
Sun 11/1 27%
Mon 11/2 29%
Tue 11/3 25%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
24%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
24%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed – in 24h
–
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Leave EUG more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed – in 24h
–
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at SAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late
↑
SAN is prone to delays
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at EUG
Weather at each end
EUG (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 4,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SAN (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 3,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.