Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
HORIZON · FLIGHT QX 2191
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
QX 2191 · OAK → SAN
departs 9:57 AM PT · arrives 11:43 AM PT
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 63h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 10%
Wed 10/28 12%
Thu 10/29 15%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 14%
Sun 11/1 19%
Mon 11/2 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave OAK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at SAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
SAN is prone to delays
↑
This route's recent record
↑
Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at OAK
↓
9am departures from OAK are usually not late
Weather at each end
OAK (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 2,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SAN (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 3,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.