Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
HORIZON · FLIGHT QX 2212
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
QX 2212 · SBP → LAS
departs 3:23 PM PT · arrives 4:51 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 12:00 AM ET · 66h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/29 19%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 18%
Sun 11/1 22%
Mon 11/2 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±6 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
24%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed – in 24h
–
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave SBP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed – in 24h
–
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into LAS at that hour are often late
↑
This route's recent record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SBP
Weather at each end
SBP (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 3,300 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
LAS (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.