Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
HORIZON · FLIGHT QX 2213
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
QX 2213 · LAS → SAN
departs 3:52 PM PT · arrives 5:13 PM PT
Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 68h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 28%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 23%
Sun 11/1 38%
Mon 11/2 34%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
39%
chance · ±7 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
39%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed – in 24h
–
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed – in 24h
–
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at SAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
3pm departures from LAS are often late
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↑
SAN is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SAN (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 3,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.