Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
HORIZON · FLIGHT QX 2265
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
QX 2265 · PAE → SFO
departs 7:32 PM PT · arrives 9:45 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 3:00 AM ET · 68h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/29 33%
Fri 10/30
Sun 11/1 50%
Mon 11/2 36%
Odds over time
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
38%
chance · ±5 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
38%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed – in 24h
–
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Leave PAE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 21% · changed – in 24h
–
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at SFO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SFO?
On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
SFO is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late
↑
This route's recent record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO
Weather at each end
PAE (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 2,900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
SFO (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 10,667 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.