Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
HORIZON · FLIGHT QX 2398
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
QX 2398 · SAN → MFR
departs 6:20 PM PT · arrives 8:38 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 2:00 AM ET · 67h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 22%
Thu 10/29 27%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 23%
Sun 11/1 29%
Mon 11/2 32%
Tue 11/3 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at MFR more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MFR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed – in 24h
–
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed – in 24h
–
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at MFR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to MFR?
On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
6pm departures from SAN are often late
↑
SAN is prone to delays
↑
This route's recent record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN
↓
Visibility down to 0.5 mi forecast at MFR that day
Weather at each end
SAN (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 3,400 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MFR (destination)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling 4,700 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.