Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
HORIZON · FLIGHT QX 2417
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
QX 2417 · PHX → ELP
departs 6:38 PM MT · arrives 8:48 PM MT
Forecast issued Wed 3:00 AM ET · 67h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at ELP more than 15 minutes late?
46%
chance · ±9 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
46%
Leave 15+ late
47%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ELP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed – in 24h
–
46%
Yes 46%
No 54%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed – in 24h
–
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Arrive at ELP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ELP?
On time or early
54%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
6pm departures from PHX are often late
↑
0.5 in of rain forecast at PHX that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
QX's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ELP
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.63 in
ELP (destination)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling 4,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.06 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.