Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
HORIZON · FLIGHT QX 2429
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
QX 2429 · SBP → PDX
departs 7:28 AM PT · arrives 9:43 AM PT
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 60h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 12%
Wed 10/28 10%
Thu 10/29 12%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 17%
Sun 11/1 14%
Mon 11/2 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at PDX more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
7%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.4d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PDX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave SBP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Arrive at PDX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PDX?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
7am departures from SBP are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SBP
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
SBP (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 3,300 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
PDX (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 3,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.