Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
HORIZON · FLIGHT QX 2493
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
QX 2493 · SFO → SAN
departs 3:30 PM PT · arrives 5:12 PM PT
Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 68h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 19%
Thu 10/29 30%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 26%
Sun 11/1 41%
Mon 11/2 32%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±5 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
11%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed – in 24h
–
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 21% · changed – in 24h
–
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at SAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
3pm departures from SFO are often late
↑
Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late
↑
This route's recent record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN
Weather at each end
SFO (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 2,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SAN (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 3,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.