RV 1618 · YUL → TPA

departs 5:26 PM EDT · arrives 8:57 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 5:00 AM ET · 12h before departure

Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?

11% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to TPA?

On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into TPA at that hour are often late

↑ TPA is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at YUL

↓ RV's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

YUL (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

TPA (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

RV 1618 · YUL → TPA

Odds over time

How late will it get to TPA?