Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AIR CANADA ROUGE · FLIGHT RV 1715 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30

RV 1715 · YYZ → BNA

departs 8:24 AM EDT · arrives 9:47 AM CT

Forecast issued Wed 12:00 AM ET · 56h before departure

Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?

9% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BNA?

On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This route's recent record

↑ 8am departures from YYZ are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BNA

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at YYZ

Weather at each end

YYZ (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling4,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BNA (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

RV 1715 · YYZ → BNA

Odds over time

How late will it get to BNA?