Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

SUN COUNTRY · FLIGHT SY 8417 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30

SY 8417 · LGU → SAT

departs 11:14 AM MT · arrives 3:08 PM CT

Forecast issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 65h before departure

Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?

17% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAT?

On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at SAT

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Other factors

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGU

↓ SY's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

LGU (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SAT (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling4,100 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.04 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

SY 8417 · LGU → SAT

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAT?