Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

SUN COUNTRY · FLIGHT SY 8627 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30

SY 8627 · BOI → LWS

departs 1:59 PM MT · arrives 2:04 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 12:00 AM ET · 64h before departure

Arrive at LWS more than 15 minutes late?

6% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LWS?

On time or early
93%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BOI

↓ Arrivals into LWS at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

BOI (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling4,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LWS (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceiling4,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

SY 8627 · BOI → LWS

Odds over time

How late will it get to LWS?