Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

SUN COUNTRY · FLIGHT SY 8701 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30

SY 8701 · AUS → MCI

departs 1:59 PM CT · arrives 4:00 PM CT

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 65h before departure

Arrive at MCI more than 15 minutes late?

23% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MCI?

On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This route's recent record

↑ 1pm departures from AUS are often late

↑ Other factors

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at AUS

↓ MCI usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

AUS (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling4,400 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MCI (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.06 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

SY 8701 · AUS → MCI

Odds over time

How late will it get to MCI?