Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AVIANCA EL SALVADOR · FLIGHT TA 423 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30

TA 423 · MCO → SAL

departs 3:31 PM ET · arrives 4:37 PM CST

Forecast issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 68h before departure

Arrive at SAL more than 15 minutes late?

16% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAL?

On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 3pm departures from MCO are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Gusts to 26 kt forecast at MCO that day

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MCO (origin) Gusts26 kt Ceiling4,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SAL (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceiling— Visibility— Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

TA 423 · MCO → SAL

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAL?