Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
TURKISH AIRLINES · FLIGHT TK 30
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
TK 30 · EWR → IST
departs 1:19 AM ET · arrives 6:14 PM +03
Forecast issued Tue 4:00 AM ET · 69h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 16%
Wed 10/28 13%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 17%
Sun 11/1 17%
Mon 11/2 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at IST more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.1d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IST more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed – in 24h
–
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed – in 24h
–
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at IST more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to IST?
On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This route's recent record
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
Other factors
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
EWR (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
IST (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.