Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
TURKISH AIRLINES · FLIGHT TK 6092
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
TK 6092 · ORD → IST
departs 5:30 PM CT · arrives 11:20 AM +03
Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 68h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at IST more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IST more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed – in 24h
–
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed – in 24h
–
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at IST more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to IST?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
5pm departures from ORD are often late
↑
This route's recent record
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
↓
IST usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
IST (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.