Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1020 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30 Tomorrow

UA 1020 · IAH → CUN

departs 5:11 PM CT · arrives 7:33 PM EST

Forecast issued Thu 5:00 AM ET · 37h before departure

Arrive at CUN more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±1 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to CUN?

On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 5pm departures from IAH are often late

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH

↓ Arrivals into CUN at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

CUN (destination) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1020 · IAH → CUN

Odds over time

How late will it get to CUN?