Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1151 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30 Tomorrow

UA 1151 · SFO → YVR

departs 2:05 PM PT · arrives 4:25 PM PDT

Forecast issued Thu 2:00 AM ET · 39h before departure

Arrive at YVR more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±8 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to YVR?

On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 2pm departures from SFO are often late

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Arrivals into YVR at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

YVR (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling2,400 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1151 · SFO → YVR

Odds over time

How late will it get to YVR?