Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1194 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30 Tomorrow

UA 1194 · DEN → PHX

departs 8:55 PM MT · arrives 9:57 PM MT

Forecast issued Fri 12:00 AM ET · 23h before departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

58% chance · ±8 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHX?

On time or early
41%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
25%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.7 in of rain forecast at PHX that day

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late

↓ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.3 mi forecast at DEN that day

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precipnone

PHX (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.75 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1194 · DEN → PHX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHX?