Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1200 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30 Tomorrow

UA 1200 · IAH → QRO

departs 6:38 PM CT · arrives 7:50 PM CST

Forecast issued Thu 6:00 PM ET · 26h before departure

Arrive at QRO more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±0 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to QRO?

On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ 6pm departures from IAH are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at QRO

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

QRO (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1200 · IAH → QRO

Odds over time

How late will it get to QRO?