Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1351 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30 Tomorrow

UA 1351 · DEN → XNA

departs 5:50 PM MT · arrives 8:48 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 6:00 PM ET · 26h before departure

Arrive at XNA more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±0 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to XNA?

On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ 5pm departures from DEN are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi forecast at DEN that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at XNA

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precipnone

XNA (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1351 · DEN → XNA

Odds over time

How late will it get to XNA?