Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1386 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30 Tomorrow

UA 1386 · LAS → EWR

departs 3:31 PM PT · arrives 11:37 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 4:00 PM ET · 26h before departure

Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?

46% chance · ±9 pts +13 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to EWR?

On time or early
54%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
17%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 3pm departures from LAS are often late

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR

↓ This flight has been late 15% of the time recently

Weather at each end

LAS (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

EWR (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1386 · LAS → EWR

Odds over time

How late will it get to EWR?