Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1393 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30 Tomorrow

UA 1393 · ORD → TPA

departs 5:03 PM CT · arrives 8:55 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 5:00 AM ET · 37h before departure

Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±0 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to TPA?

On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 5pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at TPA

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

TPA (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1393 · ORD → TPA

Odds over time

How late will it get to TPA?