Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1401 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30

UA 1401 · DFW → ORD

departs 11:31 AM CT · arrives 2:04 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 5:00 PM ET · 44h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±1 pts −9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ 11am departures from DFW are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling3,533 ft Visibility7.66667 mi Precipnone

ORD (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling7,333 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1401 · DFW → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?