Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1427 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30 Tomorrow

UA 1427 · ABQ → SFO

departs 3:58 PM MT · arrives 5:46 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 2:00 AM ET · 40h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

27% chance · ±6 pts −5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ABQ

Weather at each end

ABQ (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling8,667 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

SFO (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1427 · ABQ → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?