UA 1476 · OMA → ORD

departs 6:40 PM CT · arrives 8:34 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 7:00 PM ET · 25h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

39% chance · ±3 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ OMA usually runs smoothly

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

Weather at each end

OMA (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.18 in

ORD (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling9,667 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1476 · OMA → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?