Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1489 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30 Tomorrow

UA 1489 · EWR → STI

departs 6:54 PM ET · arrives 10:47 PM AST

Forecast issued Thu 6:00 AM ET · 37h before departure

Arrive at STI more than 15 minutes late?

42% chance · ±7 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to STI?

On time or early
57%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ 6pm departures from EWR are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at STI

Weather at each end

EWR (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

STI (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1489 · EWR → STI

Odds over time

How late will it get to STI?