Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 154 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30

UA 154 · TKK → GUM

departs 4:20 PM +10 · arrives 6:16 PM ChST

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 52h before departure

Arrive at GUM more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to GUM?

On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at GUM

↓ GUM usually runs smoothly

↓ Arrivals into GUM at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

TKK (origin) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precipnone

GUM (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 154 · TKK → GUM

Odds over time

How late will it get to GUM?