Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1571 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30 Tomorrow

UA 1571 · IAH → MCO

departs 4:50 PM CT · arrives 8:29 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 2:00 AM ET · 40h before departure

Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±4 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MCO?

On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ 4pm departures from IAH are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH

↓ MCO usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MCO (destination) Gusts26 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1571 · IAH → MCO

Odds over time

How late will it get to MCO?