Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1582 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30 Tomorrow

UA 1582 · LGA → ORD

departs 7:29 PM ET · arrives 8:51 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 4:00 PM ET · 28h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

63% chance · ±11 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
37%
15–30 min late
31%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ 7pm departures from LGA are often late

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ORD (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling9,667 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1582 · LGA → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?