Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1583 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30 Tomorrow

UA 1583 · ORD → RIC

departs 6:10 PM CT · arrives 9:27 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 6:00 AM ET · 37h before departure

Arrive at RIC more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±5 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to RIC?

On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 6pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 34% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at RIC

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

RIC (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1583 · ORD → RIC

Odds over time

How late will it get to RIC?