Tracked live by the FAA. The scheduled times shown are from a typical Friday because the FAA's flight plan was first seen after takeoff.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1603 SCHEDULED

Friday, October 30 Tomorrow

UA 1603 · LAS → SFO

departs 5:45 PM PT · arrives 7:24 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 7:00 PM ET · 26h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

56% chance · ±8 pts +10 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
44%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
14%
Over 2 hours late
9%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 5pm departures from LAS are often late

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 32% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

Weather at each end

LAS (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

SFO (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1603 · LAS → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?